by Preston Brady III
December 11, 2025
If Washington tried to carry out military action against both Venezuela and Columbia, it would not look like Iraq or Afghanistan, and it would not be a traditional marching on the ground invasion. The region’s geography, politics and military realities make that nearly impossible.
The United States would lead with air and naval power. Ground troops would not be a good option. The military would start with airstrikes, naval blockades of controlling ports, heavy drone surveillance, and cyberattacks to shut down communications.
The aim would be to paralyze both militaries as quickly as possible, without having to send tens of thousands of American troops into the region. The American model is typically airstrikes first, blockade next and ground forces as a last resort.
The United States would not send 150,000 ground troops to South America like they did in Iraq. Instead, there would be special forces raids, securing of airfields, capturing key ports and targeting the high-ranking military leaders.
The U.S. would face considerable pushback on attempts to control cities such as Caracas, Maracaibo, Bogota and Medellin. These cities are crowded, mountainous and would be difficult for any foreign force to capture. Even if the U.S. took any of these cities, the task of actually holding them would prove monumental.
The U.S. would have planned for guerrilla warfare to commence almost immediately. The groups are numerous and include ELN, FARC, and a number of colectivos, smuggling militias and cartel-linked groups. These groups have considerable experience battling in the dense, mountainous terrain, where tanks and drones would face an uphill battle, and supply lines are easy to disable.
In the midst of this war the movement of the general population would be enormous. Millions of people would flee across the borders or into coastal areas in an attempt to escape the fighting.
Countries such as Brazil, Peru, Ecuador and Trinidad and Tobago would see a massive influx of refugees, creating an overwhelming humanitarian crisis.
Most military experts would agree that the United States could destroy both of these countries in a fairly quick manner, because neither country has a military fighting power that could resist it. However, this could be considered a win on paper due to the circumstances that immediately arise following such as victory: stabilizing of the countries, managing the guerrilla groups, rebuilding the economies, securing the oil fields and generally just preventing civil breakdown in these two countries. So, while the United States could easily win the opening phase of the conflict, it could be trapped in a very long, difficult conflict afterward. It is for these reasons I believe the United States will not invade Venezuela or Columbia, but will rather use some other approach to achieve its goals in this region.
Preston Brady III is editor and publisher of MobileTribune.com